Neither Dr Warren Farrell nor William Collins need an introduction to followers of this blog.
For reasons that will become clear next weekend, I was recently engaged in an email exchange with Warren, who will be a Guest of Honour at the 2020 International Conference on Men’s Issues, details of which we expect to announce w/c 18 May. It’s going to be simply the best. Better than all the rest.
The exchange, which William Collins joins later on, and is reproduced here with the permission of both Warren and Wllliam, is here:
Warren, I have a friend, a man in his 30s, with numerous major mental health issues. He was recently sent home three times in the space of a month with extreme suicidal ideation, serious self-harming with knives etc. No woman would have been sent home under such circumstances.
The NHS has been an utter scandal for 50+ years, especially in the area of mental health services, but of course Brits can’t see beyond a free service at the point of use, and are pathetically grateful for that. And of course I get why Americans, especially poorer Americans, would want something similar.
It was revealed yesterday that male doctors in the UK (now a minority due to positive discrimination for female medical students for 40+ years) are 12x more likely to die of Covid-19 than female doctors. The BBC (the British Bullshit Corporation) has, predictably, taken zero interest.
Warren replied:
Can you give me a good source for the “male doctors in the UK (now a minority due to positive discrimination for female medical students for 40+ years) are 12x more likely to die of Covid-19 than female doctors”?
I replied:
Hi Warren. Two issues here:
- Dr Vernon Coleman, 74, the first British “TV doctor” and the author of 100+ books https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vernon_Coleman and a huge inspiration for me as a self-publisher – for some years we communicated regularly, and he was very supportive of my work, e.g. saying The Glass Ceiling Delusion was “Brilliant. Brilliant. Brilliant.” – was writing about medical schools’ preferencing of women over men in the mid-1970s, For decades 70%+ of British medical students have been women. He predicted highly negative impacts from the feminisation of the medical profession. ALL of his predictions, it need hardly be said, have come true, which should be no surprise to anyone who understands gender-typical natures. The NHS has been a complete disaster for DECADES because of that feminisation.
- Male v female doctors’ mortality https://atomic-temporary-215937230.wpcomstaging.com/2020/05/02/male-doctors-are-12-times-more-likely-to-die-from-covid-19-than-their-female-colleagues/
Warren replied:
I can’t get the 12xs amount out of this:
“Men represent 94% of deaths amongst doctors and consultants although only 55% of NHS doctors are men. While the age and ethnicity profile of male and female doctors are quite different, on average this means male doctors are more than 12 times as likely to die from Covid-19 than their female colleagues.”
I replied:
Thanks Warren. This is a little tricky to explain but I’ll do my best. Let me know if you want me to get William Collins to try and explain it more clearly.
55/45 = 1.222 i.e. a NHS doctor is 22.2% more likely to be a man that a woman. So if you adjust the data for gender parity – in order to get to the figure of gender-related mortality – by reducing the 94% figure by 22.2%, you arrive at 76.9%. That is 12.8 x larger than the female doctors’ 6%.
Warren replied:
I’m unclear on a couple of the points/transitions here. Yes, would you ask William Collins to give me his best explanation. As you know, our side of the coin needs to be explained so precisely and accurately lest we magnify the ability of feminists to use any one misstep as an example of our “misogyny.” An unfair burden, but certainly this is not about fairness…
I replied:
Thanks Warren. It takes a bit of getting your head around, and I’m not great at explaining such things, but William has a brain the size of a planet – his latest book is about quantum mechanics, which defeated me as a Chemistry student in the late 1970s – and I’m sure he can explain it better than I have, so I’ve bcc’d him on this.
William Collins replied:
Mike’s arithmetical explanation is right, but I’ll express it in my own words.
The underlying data – from Men’s Health Forum – is not mine, but that (UK) source is usually reliable – the exact link is: https://www.menshealthforum.org.uk/news/male-doctors-12-times-more-likely-die-covid-19
The full quote is:
Men represent 94% of deaths amongst doctors and consultants although only 55% of NHS doctors are men. While the age and ethnicity profile of male and female doctors are quite different, on average this means male doctors are more than 12 times as likely to die from Covid-19 than their female colleagues.
The rider about age and ethnicity is important – I’ll come to that. But for the derivation of “12 times”, consider 1000 doctors, of whom (we are told) 550 will be men and 450 women. Suppose the fraction of doctors dying of C-19 is X, then 1000X of these 1000 doctors will have died, of which (we are told) 940X will be men and 60X women.
The fraction of male doctors dying of C-19 is thus 940X/550 = 1.71X, whilst the fraction of women doctors dying of C-19 is 60X/450 = 0.133X. Hence the m:f sex ratio of the risk of death to doctors is 1.71X / 0.133X = 12.8 (as claimed, about 12 times), noting that this does not depend on X, which cancels out.
BUT…there are three obvious shortcomings…
1) There are indications that ethnic minorities are more susceptible, and more male than female doctors will be ethnic minorities;
2) There will be a greater proportion of male to female doctors than 55% in the older age range, as we know that women tend to give up work – or work part time – after the age of around 40 or so. And we also know that the risk of dying from C-19 is HUGELY age dependent – so one could say, to a rough approximation, that it’s only doctors over 50 or 55 who are really at risk of dying.
3) The sex ratio of people employed as doctors takes no account of working hours. Off hand I don’t know the position for hospital doctors, but in general practice most female GPs work part-time whilst almost all male GPs work full time. It is reasonable to assume risk is proportion to hours of exposure. So in terms of hours worked, men will be far more than 55%, perhaps more like 70% (guess), even ignoring age and ethnicity.
So, if one attempted to compare like with like, the factor of 12 is almost certainly greatly over-cooked.
BUT – assuming the Men’s Health Forum’s stats are right – that does not alter the (claimed) fact that 94% of doctors dying of C-19 are men. That fact stands alone as significant.
The whole world seems to be doing stats on C-19 – except me. Ironic as I’m known as “Mr Data”. But I regard it as premature. The stats are changing rapidly. And it may be best to wait not merely months but years – because “herd immunity” is real, so more deaths now might mean fewer later, and vice-versa – it remains to be seen.
Ultimately the data will need to be analysed with multivariate regression to separate out the effects of the different factors. But that is not the urgent issue for policy makers. The urgent issue for policy makers in my opinion is to adopt a mature and balanced moral perspective (http://thebackbencher.co.uk/the-morality-of-lockdown/). Economic collapse kills too.
Keep up the good work & I look forward to listening to your interview with Mike and Elizabeth on Gender Matters shortly.
[Name redacted] (aka William Collins)
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